Now, let me first say that I believe that the Earth is warming. Second, let me be very clear that humans are not the sole cause for it; and here is why I believe this:
Although there are many theories and computer models that predict catastrophe based on the data supplied, the models are not perfect, and they don’t include every variable involved. These models are based on our current understanding of the climate, which is not total. We are learning more every day, and as we do, those models are being changed. Have you noticed how notoriously bad your local weather forecast has become over the last few years? That’s because they switched models, and although those models included more variables, they were prone to be wrong more often because the information fed into them was either inaccurate or the model was not calibrated properly. The same happens with global climate modeling.
Again, I do believe that the climate is warming, but I believe it is 99% due to natural cycle and 1% due to human activities (rough estimate of percentages). Why do I believe this? Because of several things:
First, few people know that NASA found that Venus, Mars, and Jupiter were all experiencing increases in average global temperature over the last several years. The last I read, they didn’t know why. Some speculated that an increase in Solar output was to blame, but they didn’t have data to prove one way or the other. So, can we blame humans for global warming on Venus, Mars, and Jupiter? If not, then why is Earth’s global warming caused by humans, but not by the same cause that is heating Venus, Mars, and Jupiter? I argue that all four planets are being affected by the same thing; and it’s not a human cause.
Second, the data that “scientists” are looking at is over the last twenty or thirty years – since satellites started taking global measurements. Anyone that knows anything about history knows that such a short time span is like taking a single 5-minute period of a day and extrapolating from it what would happen over a year. So, if you measured the temperature at 8:00AM to be 60F, and then checked at 8:05AM and found it to be 62F, then could you truly say that the temperature would rise two degrees every five minutes for a year? Holy cow, the temperature after a year would be over 350,000F!! So, why are the scientists taking a 30 year period, adding in a lot of assumptions because they don’t really know how it all works, and extrapolating what will happen over the next 100 to 200 years?
I am amazed when these so-called “scientists” say over and over that they’ve done studies and found X. Such as saying that “the ice sheets are melting, we can’t let that happen!!” Why not? According to scientists, the ice sheets weren’t always there. In fact, many of these scientists say things like “it hasn’t been at this level for a few thousand years.” Is that so? Then why was it like that a few thousand years ago? Did cave men burn too much firewood and cause the pre-historical ice sheets to melt? No. It was due to natural climatological cycles. Cycles that we cannot stop and we must simply deal with as they happen.
Few people also are unaware of the 21,000 year precessional wobble that the Earth’s axis takes. Simply put, the axis of the Earth’s rotation wobbles like a top. Every 21,000 years, it makes a full cycle. So, every 11,000 years, the seasons in the northern and southern hemisphere swap. In 11,000 years, June 22nd (or thereabouts since calendars are subject to error too) will mark the SHORTEST day of the year in the northern hemisphere. That’s right, June will be Winter for North America and Australia will be basking in the warmth. Take this quote from Space.com article http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetearth/orbit_climate_010212.html :
“About 23 million years ago, a huge ice sheet spread over Antarctica, temporarily reversing a general trend of global warming, decreasing ice volume and ushering in a generally calm climatic period. The new study suggests this period corresponded with a rare combination of events in the pattern of Earth’s trek around the Sun.”
What?!?! A global warming trend 23 million years ago? Where were the humans? Not around yet, it turns out. So, it must be a NATURAL phenomenon that causes these trends.
Another fact that few people know: Manhattan Island in the U.S. (where New York City is) was created by a glacier. As it spread south, it pushed rock and dirt ahead of it. It got as far as where Manhattan Island is before stopping and then retreating (melting). The leading edge of rubble and rock is Manhattan Island!! So, where’d the glacier go? It melted! Not due to humans; due to NATURAL global warming.
I’ll wrap up by saying this: I absolutely believe that humans have a responsibility to keep the environment as clean as we possibly can. We need to do this for the health of humans and animals that live here. However, we should not falsely claim that by eliminating fossil fuel cars and machinery we can stop global warming. It just will not be so. Just like sailors once held firmly to the belief that if you sailed far enough, you’d fall off the edge of the Earth, stopping all internal combustion engines will not stop global warming.
Think about it…
Mark